| According to Dr. Jovita Mėžinė, the project leader, marine forecasts are not new to the Baltic Sea countries, but no one in Lithuania is providing such a service yet. KU MRI scientists have prepared an operational hydrodynamic model that will calculate daily water indicators for the next five days in the southeastern Baltic Sea and the Curonian Lagoon based on existing data. Such information can be useful for planning environmental monitoring and fishing activities, navigation in the harbor or the Curonian Lagoon, thunderstorm hazards, possible pollutant dispersion models, etc. | .jpg) |
“We would probably single out fishermen and shipping agents, who are likely to be the most affected by the marine forecast. Publicly available indicators give an indication of the current, whether sea water is flowing into the Curonian Lagoon or, conversely, whether a current is forming from the Curonian Lagoon to the sea. Shipping agents can see what the waves or their height will be like and decide whether it is safe to embark. This is also relevant for holidaymakers planning a holiday. The forecast is for everyone,” says Dr. J. Mėžinė.
Data is updated and processed twice a day on KU server and updated on the website at 2.00 a.m. and 2.00 p.m. Information and graphical models are available to the public on KU website https://hidroprognozes.ku.lt/.
The operational hydrodynamic model developed by KU scientists uses data provided by the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service and Copernicus Marine Service for forecast calculations. According to Inga Grigorjanc, Head of Forecasts and Warnings Department at the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service, KU’s marine forecasts will also be available for people to view on the Service’s website www.meteo.lt in early 2025.
“We are very interested in the results of such modelling, as we currently rely on models from abroad to publish hydrological forecasts. The forecasts of hydrodynamic model developed by KU scientists are quite detailed. It makes it possible to predict wave height, speed, water level, temperature, etc. much more accurately. The data is particularly important, for example, in emergency situations. In such cases, the most accurate information is needed,” said I. Grigorjanc, who is delighted with the KU scientists’ project.
According to Head of Forecasts and Warnings Department at the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service, the model developed by the scientists is very promising and is expected to be further developed. Accurate forecasts of ice phenomena, such as ice thickness, movement, etc., are also very much needed at present.
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“Future plans – artificial intelligence might also be used to revise forecasts, for example, where applying a more advanced model to wave forecasting. I think the project will grow and improve over time,” says the project scientist Dr. Rasa Idzelytė. The project is funded by the international Copernicus Marine Service, the marine component of the European Union’s (EU) Copernicus program, which is responsible for providing free, regular, and systematic information on the state of the ocean at global and regional scales. It is funded by the European Commission (EC) and implemented by Mercator Ocean International. |
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The main objective of the support program is to meet EU policy and international legal obligations related to ocean governance. It also aims to respond to the needs of society at large and to promote the blue economy in all maritime sectors. The model developed at Klaipėda University is part of the project and provides information on processes in the southeastern Baltic Sea and the Curonian Lagoon.
